45 million iPhones sold by 2009, potential for millions more in China?

March 31, 2008 | MG Siegler | Comments | |

iphonsmallishThe prognostications for the iPhone have gone from bearish to bullish in a hurry. Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster today is reiterating the prediction made in June 2007 that Apple would sell 45 million iPhones in 2009.

Aside from throwing out the lofty number once again, Munster lays out the rationale behind his thinking today. He believes that Apple will:

  • Release a new 3G iPhone within the next 3 to 6 months (our coverage)
  • Come out with a lower-priced iPhone model around $200 to $300
  • Enter new crucial new markets (presumably places like Canada and India)
  • Add new features to the device such as games and remote purchasing (our coverage)

Munster’s data charts (below) are even more interesting. Using the sales trends that were seen with the iPod, he extrapolates out numbers that show a massive surge in sales starting at the end of this year and continuing well into 2009.

chartsapp1

His numbers are even more optimistic for potential subscriptions in other parts of the world. The most staggering number is in China, where he expects Apple to launch the device in 2009 and potentially sign up tens of millions of new subscribers by the end of that year.

chartsapp2

All of these numbers are contingent on a lot of variables (such as Apple negotiating a deal with China), but whereas other analysts grew skeptical about the iPhone’s sales potential, Munster has remained confident about the device. Earlier this month he stated his belief that the iPhone would outsell its 10 million goal by nearly 30 percent in 2008.

While we’ve shared Munster’s optimism for the iPhone even when the naysayers were out in full force last month, these latest goals do seem a bit excessive given the uncertainty in the new markets. You have to wonder at some point if Munster is putting huge numbers out there to justify his company’s long-standing $250 price target on Apple’s stock. This target looked good when the stock was at $200-a-share at the end of last year, but with the stock now lingering in the $140-a-share level, such an ascension might be difficult in the current economic climate.

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About the Author, MG Siegler

MG Siegler writes about technology trends and new media for VentureBeat, with a focus on mobile topics, social elements and key news stories. Before that, MG wrote about technology on his blog, ParisLemon. Originally from Ohio, MG attended the University of Michigan where he studied film. He's previously lived in Los Angeles where he worked in Hollywood and in San Diego where he did web development. He now lives in San Francisco.

  • MG,

    Great posting. I also believe that Apple has a very positive outlook. A lot of the shareholders were pessimistic as the stock approached it's peak of $200 (I was also a shareholder). One of the main issues at hand was that the iPhones were being "iClone[d]" in China. In addition, many iPhones were being unlocked and being shipped to China, which explains the major discrepancy between the number of subscribers in the USA through AT&T using the iPhone versus the actual number of iPhones purchased.

    However, I believe that with their 3G capabilities and the new firmware for the Apple, unlocking and hacking the iPhone to be sent to China will be extremely difficult. As a result, people in China would have to purchase directly through Apple once Apple penetrates their market. I have no doubt in my mind that Apple's marketing campaign will be successful, considering how well they brand themselves currently in the USA. Companies like RIMM (Blackberries) suffering right now because of their lack of new innovation.

    The forecasts look positive for 2009, which makes me feel tempted to purchase more Apple stock as it lingers around $140 right now. With a forecast of $200+, it seems like a no-brainer.

    Thanks MG,
    -Albert
  • Michael
    "His numbers are even more optimistic for potential sales in other parts of the world. The most staggering number is in China, where he expects Apple to launch the device in 2009 and sign up some 369.3 million subscribers by the end of that year!"

    I don't think the analyst is forecasting Apple to sign up that many subs, but rather just showing the number of users on China Mobile. The analyst applies a conversion ratio against that figure to something that is more realistic.

    -Michael
  • mike@gmail.com
    Heh heh, no kidding. Is that arrington? :)
  • mike@gmail.com
    Pretty sure the first table, 35M is the appropiate end num for 2009.

    Really wish we'd see ipod touch mixed in with those numbers.
  • @albert - thanks. good stuff on china, it will be very interesting to see how the device plays out there when (and if) Apple is able to negotiate a deal.

    $140 is probably a pretty attractive price for Apple, but I don't know how I feel about Jaffray's $250 target, especially short-term in this economy.

    @Michael - yes, those are potential subscribers, so good point. I'll clean up my wording a bit. Still, the idea is the same, they clearly think China will be HUGE for the iPhone.

    @mike - yep. iPod Touch numbers would be interesting to throw in the mix.
  • MG: what share are Apple numbers of the total communicator market? Of smartphone market? Of total number of mobile phones sold?