The Swedish phone culture is to choose any phone and any operator. The question is how the break-through of the flatrate ubiquitous 3G-Internet. The iPhone has by far the best web-browser and movie watching I have seen so far, which could increase the incentive for getting it. However – how many people (even in the US) would get a computer that is locked to one ISP? If T-Mobile covered the whole of California with their wireless network, would people get mobile computers that only connects to T-mobiles’ wireless network?

You wrote – “One third of the iPhones sold in Europe are unlocked after purchase, according to Ny Teknik. Still, Apple CEO Steve Jobs is holding on to the initial strategy of one single partner per country. Why so stubborn, Jobs? Of course it’s tempting to copy the revenue model the company has in the US with AT&T, where Apple gets $80 for every phone sold plus an additional $10 per month from subscription fees for two years. However, if that strategy leads to a growing number of iPhones being unlocked and used with other operators, the returns are going to shrink significantly for Apple down the road.”

That was then … this is now (or soon – June 2008) … Look for new iPhone business models as Apple launches their next gen iPhone. IMHO there will be a hiatus in any further iPhone launches until the next gen (3G) model is ready for showtime … and best guesses say that will be circa WWDC 2008 – June 9 – 13.
http://idannyb.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/apple-is-open-to-new-iphone-business-models/

I expect that Apple will give serious consideration to a dual launch strategy – … a locked-to-carrier and also a premium-priced unlocked iPhone (ala Apple’s carrier deal with Orange in France).

T-Mobile offers the iPhone with a variety of different subscriptions. Your quoted price of $155 is only available if you choose the most expensive monthly subscription option (as you can see here http://www.t-mobile.de/iphone/addHandset.do). I believe that the vast majority of current customers will not pick this option but rather a much cheaper (e.g. $75/month) option at which the 8GB iPhone is slightly above $300. At this price you do not get a data flatrate and also only 100 minutes to talk.

Furthermore, I believe it is important to understand the European mindset in this issue rather than the technical differences.

It was not until recently that Europeans were actually made aware of all the costs associated with using cell phones at home and abroad. The EU parliament had to push the cell phone providers (most of which are operating across borders) very hard to create more transparency in the price structures. This alienated the consumers, especially the Germans. One of the outcomes of this disconnect can be found in the rise of prepaid cards (lowering the ARPU tremendously). Parents buy their children only prepaid cards in order to escape the potential huge costs at the end of the month. A lot of very competitive offers by very small retailers exist in Germany. By having a lot of people cancel their contracts upon expiration and switch to these cheaper pay-as-you-go options, people actually want to participate on the fast price movements which they did not get were they on a subscription contract. The operators did not pass on the price reductions and so it seems that they are now suffering from their very own mistakes to exploit the contractual limitations rather than striving for customer excellence. And I believe that if you ask an iPhone user on the street what she would have to pay for the data his iPhone would use abroad, she would not be able to answer that (keep in mind: Europeans travel a lot – for skiing, summer, Christmas, etc.).

And there is also a notion in the German public that the prices for cell phone service are kept very high artificially. For T-Mobile you will find a lot of comments on the internet (and in public newspapers) that the profits from Germany serve to expand their business in the US and their failure to monetize the huge investments in the 3G infrastructure.
With continuous announcements about the “great” 3G infrastructure in Germany, the operators have raised the bar for next generation phones and services, creating a promise they are due to deliver on.

Lastly, I agree with Mark on the issue of comparable devices. Europe has always been served by far better models than what was available in the US. The gap between the iPhone and comparable models is not as wide as in the US.

So, instead of committing to a somewhat first generation model of the iPhone which is not utilizing the technological capabilities (i.e. 3G) and offered at a quite expensive price (for the next two years), I would actually blame the operators rather than Jobs for any of this. The operators just seem to be so greedy to finally monetize any of their huge upfront investments in their “great” infrastructure that they are losing the connection to their customers.

1) 02’s sales figure was 190K which was the bottom end of estimates. 02 subsequently had to dramatically improve their tariff to boost sales.
2) Orange in France sold 70,000 in the first month and only 20,000 the following month – a massive drop off. This was published some time ago.
3) T-mobile in Germany have had to revamp their contracts to stimulate demand. You did manage to get that right at least.

Compared to sales from Nokia, SE and LG the iPhone has been a sub-par performer. To call it a success is ludicrous and shows a lamentable lack of understanding of one’s subject matter.

Cheers!

PS: I would leave Steve Jobs out of this.